Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.051355 1.105327 1.161027 1.222914 1.289880 1.360297 1.440125
2025-12-28 0.974957 1.052751 1.136350 1.233305 1.343208 1.464581 1.609678
2026-01-04 0.913690 1.004309 1.104379 1.223924 1.363967 1.524241 1.723621
2026-01-11 0.878928 0.980371 1.094963 1.235328 1.404496 1.604283 1.861917
2026-01-18 0.845407 0.954400 1.079849 1.236777 1.430544 1.665719 1.978825
2026-01-25 0.827516 0.944864 1.082351 1.257853 1.479735 1.756434 2.136940
2026-02-01 0.790088 0.909604 1.051465 1.235276 1.471817 1.772939 2.197536
2026-02-08 0.751868 0.871483 1.014988 1.203256 1.449160 1.767731 2.226736
2026-02-15 0.727317 0.848980 0.996583 1.192777 1.453110 1.796777 2.303731
2026-02-22 0.709841 0.834402 0.987217 1.193032 1.470551 1.844066 2.408757
2026-03-01 0.686058 0.810918 0.965463 1.175809 1.463133 1.855991 2.462112
2026-03-08 0.657725 0.780707 0.933958 1.144234 1.434349 1.835929 2.465505
2026-03-15 0.639527 0.763530 0.919503 1.135938 1.438773 1.865320 2.549562
2026-03-22 0.629662 0.756781 0.918406 1.145632 1.468838 1.933570 2.699952
2026-03-29 0.613369 0.741034 0.904728 1.137238 1.472311 1.962156 2.788366
2026-04-05 0.605277 0.735710 0.904611 1.147451 1.502900 2.033015 2.952152
2026-04-12 0.594386 0.726260 0.898490 1.148749 1.520100 2.083847 3.085940
2026-04-19 0.590482 0.725943 0.904650 1.167607 1.564259 2.179533 3.307390
2026-04-26 0.573084 0.706902 0.884410 1.147405 1.547710 2.176132 3.348250
2026-05-03 0.553586 0.684544 0.858966 1.118718 1.516778 2.147357 3.339169
2026-05-10 0.541550 0.672069 0.846940 1.109320 1.515429 2.167416 3.424268
2026-05-17 0.533295 0.664547 0.841597 1.109549 1.529092 2.213259 3.563358
2026-05-24 0.520294 0.650162 0.826158 1.094094 1.516963 2.214086 3.612581